![]() ![]() Additionally, synoptic lift from a 140kt jet streak will further support widespread precipitation across the area. Combined with southwesterly flow, areas that are favored in such flow will do quite well in this regime. There is also some uncertainty with timing as the trough axis moves inland, with a slower system bringing more precipitation to the area.Īhead of the cold front, PWAT values near the 75th-90th percentiles for mid-March provide an abundance of moisture. Currently, 58% of members favor a deeper trough (moreso EC members) and thus precipitation further south. Although models are now trending further south into Arizona with the moisture plume, we are still expected to get widespread precipitation over much of mid-week.Įnsemble members are trending further south with the overall longwave trough, thus focusing more of the precipitation in southern Utah, at least ahead of the cold front. LONG TERM (After 12Z Tuesday).The long-term period features a longwave trough and associated atmospheric river that is expected to bring plentiful moisture to our area. As a result, the chance for thunderstorms can`t be ruled out. Unstable conditions are expected Monday evening, particularly across southerly Utah. Snow amounts above 8,000 ft, for Monday alone, are currently forecast between 8 and 12 feet with locally higher amounts. In that scenario, rain/snow to mostly all snow is forecast. The snow levels are forecast to begin around 6,000 ft and drop to 5,000 ft thus allowing for a rain/snow mixture however snow levels could already start the evening fairly low (~5,200 ft) and further drop overnight. ![]() Here, the rain/snow mix looks to peak in the overnight hours Monday into Tuesday where a range of possible QPF amounts is 0.10 inches and upwards of 1 inch is forecast. For example, a more challenging snow level forecast exists in Heber where a larger spread in snow levels/QPF and snow amounts exists Monday. For example, at SLC snow levels may be as low as 5,000 ft but this really does not have a different outcome in the precipitation type at the end of the day.Įssentially, the forecast will call for valley rain and mountain snow showers but there certainly are areas where a rain/snow mix will occur. There is fairly good agreement amongst ensemble members regarding this forecast this far out, but of course there still is some spread. Snow levels are forecast to climb across the state throughout the day under warm air advection toward ~6,000 ft Monday afternoon/evening across northern Utah and 7,000 ft across southern Utah. ![]() The arrival of our next rain/snow maker arrives the first day of spring, resulting from low pressure incoming from the northwest. Breezy conditions are expected tomorrow afternoon in southern Utah locations, like Zion NP and around Snow Canyon with minimal impacts expected. Temperatures are forecast to warm in comparison to this afternoon but still remain approximately 5 degrees below climatological normals. SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY).High pressure will allow for a mild and dry weekend. ![]() The next storm is expected to arrive Monday and continue through much of the week, bringing heavy precipitation to the area. SYNOPSIS.High pressure will build into the area through the weekend. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 318 PM MDT Fri Mar 17 2023 ![]()
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